Review of Afghanistan developments
Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq Khan, arrived in Kabul on Friday, May 9. He wrote on his page X that he would hold “important meetings” with Taliban government officials during the trip, but did not provide details about the itinerary or topics discussed.
Sadiq Khan’s trip to Afghanistan during the Indo-Pakistani conflict, occurring mere hours before Pakistan’s military operation against India named ‘Bonyan Marsus’, is evidently not connected to routine matters between the two nations and likely serves a specific purpose. Therefore, the primary concern that may have prompted his visit to Kabul pertains to the security challenges facing the country. In this context, the following analysis can be offered.
Request to Kabul to alleviate the security pressure on Pakistan
The onset of the India-Pakistan conflict has escalated security pressures on the Pakistani government to an unparalleled degree. Prior to India’s offensive against Pakistan, the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Punjab were already experiencing frequent assaults from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army. With the commencement of India’s military actions, Pakistan is now facing security challenges from both internal and external sources. Islamabad has not encountered such a scenario in any of the four previous wars with India.
In light of this challenging circumstances, the Balochistan Liberation Army has seized the opportunity to advocate for the independence of Balochistan. While this separatist demand is not unprecedented, its introduction at this juncture seeks to exert additional pressure on Pakistan.
Pakistan has consistently voiced its apprehensions regarding the presence and operations of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) within Afghanistan, claiming that the organization is orchestrating assaults on Pakistani forces from Afghan territory. In a recent meeting entitled ‘Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations under the Shadow of Terrorism,’ Sadiq Khan remarked that the actions of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan are obstructing the advancement of bilateral relations.
It is plausible that the purpose of Pakistan’s special representative Sadiq Khan’s visit to Kabul is to encourage Taliban government officials to leverage their influence over the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and urge the group to cease its attacks, at least under the present conditions.
In light of the ongoing hostilities between India and Pakistan, which could escalate into a full-scale War, Islamabad is compelled to prioritize its focus on India. In this context, Sadiq Khan may have conveyed Islamabad’s appeal to Kabul for assistance in curbing the TTP assaults. Given that the leader of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan has sworn loyalty to Taliban leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzha, this appeal is strategically devised by Pakistan, as cooperation from Kandahar could alleviate the security challenges faced by Pakistan.
It is important to highlight that prior to the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan and before the commencement of Indian air operations against Pakistan, Anand Prakash, the Indian special representative, made a visit to Kabul. The objective of this visit was to gauge the stance of the Taliban government officials concerning the potential conflict in Delhi. India expressed concerns that the Taliban government might adopt an anti-Indian position amidst the rising tensions between Delhi and Islamabad. With the recent arrival of the Pakistani special representative in Kabul, it appears that the Taliban government is now confronted with a new request that may place Kabul in a position of facing two conflicting demands.
Mediation by China
Considering the existing tensions between Kabul and Islamabad, it appears improbable that Kabul will acquiesce to Pakistan’s request to urge the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan to cease its attacks, especially since Pakistan has been exerting pressure on the Taliban government through various security, political, and economic strategies in recent months. Consequently, Islamabad is expected to engage China as a potential mediator. Upon his arrival in Kabul, Sadiq Khan, Pakistan’s special representative, engaged in discussions with Yu Xiaoyong, China’s special representative for Afghanistan. It is probable that initial conversations between Islamabad and Beijing have already occurred, as a trilateral meeting involving China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan is set to take place in Kabul on Saturday, May 10.
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Possible incentives for Afghanistan
It is probable that Sadiq Khan will provide incentives to the Taliban government in exchange for their agreement to his proposal, with one such concession likely pertaining to trade relations between the two countries. In recent years, trade relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have encountered difficulties, including border closures and transit restrictions, adversely affecting the Afghan economy. Prior to the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, discussions among officials in Kabul and Islamabad highlighted the importance of creating bilateral frameworks to enhance trade and address the challenges faced by Afghan traders. Sadiq Khan is likely to present some appealing suggestions in this context.
One alternative proposal that Sadiq Khan might present in return for agreeing to the request is to halt the deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan. The unexpected influx of hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees deported from Pakistan has placed significant strain on the Taliban government.
Conclusion
The visit of Pakistan’s special envoy Sadiq Khan to Kabul aims to achieve a combination of security, economic, and political goals. In terms of security, the visit is primarily concerned with preventing attacks from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to alleviate the pressure on Pakistan in light of its ongoing conflict with India.
In terms of economic strategy, enhancing trade relations with Kabul is a priority to motivate the Taliban government to exert control over the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. Politically, Islamabad aims to temporarily suspend the deportation of Afghan refugees, both to alleviate its burden during this crisis and to ease the pressure on Kabul caused by the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Pakistan.
Nonetheless, acquiescing to this request may conflict with the essence of the accord established with the Indian Special Representative. It appears that Kabul is once more confronted with a decision between India and Pakistan, a dilemma that has historically imposed significant burdens.on Kabul. Consequently, from the onset of Taliban governance, analysts have cautioned that Kabul ought to pursue a balanced and impartial foreign policy in relation to the competing countries.
It remains to be seen how the Taliban government will respond to Sadiq Khan under these circumstances, and whether it will leverage its influence over the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan to halt the attacks.
