Review of Afghanistan Developments
In the mid-1990s, theTaliban emerged as the most organized military-political entity in Afghanistan, largely due to its strategic location and centralized leadership. Following its suppression in 2001, the group experienced a resurgence, during which it allied with another faction stemming from the Afghan jihad era, known as the “Haqqani Network” by both the Afghan government and American forces. This coalition became a significant force in the two-decade conflict against the United States and the Afghan government. Over the last twenty years, these two factions, operating in unison under a unified command, successfully accomplished their primary objective: the military defeat of the United States and the government it supported.
Throughout the two-decade conflict that commenced in 2001, the sole instance of a division within this group was marked by the departure of Mullah Abdul Manan Niazi along with several individuals under his leadership. Despite the group’s vigorous propaganda efforts, they failed to realize any tangible outcomes. Ultimately, the assassination of Mullah Abdul Manan led to the dissolution of this splinter faction.
In the aftermath of the Taliban’s triumph in 2021 and the subsequent establishment of their government, there were expectations of potential rifts regarding the allocation of power, particularly between the Kandahari and Haqqani factions, the latter of which emerged from eastern Afghanistan. This led to fears of a possible civil war reigniting in Afghanistan. The historical precedent of civil strife among Mujahideen groups following the collapse of Dr. Najibullah’s government made such predictions seem plausible. However, contrary to these anticipations, the Taliban effectively formed a cohesive and unified government, maintaining its internal stability throughout the last three and a half years.
Recently, there have been reports from various individuals and media sources with specific political biases suggesting that a division is emerging among the leaders of the Taliban, with indications that this division may escalate into a civil conflict. Proponents of this perspective reference several recent criticisms made by Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, whose latest remarks were particularly pointed, as well as comments from Sirajuddin Haqqani, to substantiate their claims of discord among the leadership. Given that Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai played a significant role as a senior negotiator during the Doha negotiations and currently serves as the deputy foreign minister, while Sirajuddin Haqqani holds the position of acting interior minister and leads the Haqqani network, the assertions regarding a significant rift among the Taliban leaders warrant serious consideration.
Nevertheless, should the cases referenced by these individuals be considered credible indicators of a rift and disagreement within the Taliban? In addition to these instances, are there other occurrences that might render inter-Taliban conflict feasible?
The unbiased and impartial evaluation of the above queries indicates that the issues cannot extend beyond the expression of dissatisfaction with the leader’s conduct and approach, or, to rephrase, with the leader’s governance style. The most compelling reasons supporting this viewpoint are that these concerns clearly critique the manner of governance rather than the leader’s role or the breadth of their power, which is encapsulated in the term “Amir al-Mu’minin.”
In addition, the manner in which power is divided among the Taliban may not be seen as ideal, and it is possible that the expectations of all factions, notably the powerful Haqqani faction, have not been completely satisfied. However, there have been no indications from Taliban leaders expressing any dissatisfaction with the current power structure, and no complaints have been reported. Reports from certain sources indicating dissatisfaction among some Taliban leaders about the power division are not credible and should be interpreted as rumors or psychological operations.
The distribution of power and the configuration of individuals within the Taliban’s governing framework have been implemented in a way that has garnered the approval of most members. Leaders within the Taliban regard their present positions and status as reflective of their practical abilities and their involvement in the larger Taliban organization.
As acknowledged by Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the caretaker administration, the leaders of the government have recognized the necessity of maintaining unity and its critical importance. Over the last three decades, the Taliban’s success has been largely due to the solidarity among its members. Additionally, the line between the survival and potential disintegration of the current Afghan government is defined by the maintenance of unity and integrity among its leadership. It is widely believed by experts that the Taliban government is not likely to be dismantled by attacks from ISIS or armed opposition factions; instead, it is the potential for discord among its leaders that could lead to its downfall. Therefore, the Taliban understand that any internal strife could result in the collapse of their government, ultimately leading to its destruction at their own hands.
Aside from the points already discussed, there are other significant factors that contribute to the cohesion among the leaders of this group, thereby facilitating the persistence of the Taliban government. Ideology and a collective identity are paramount in this regard. This group is fundamentally ideological, and acknowledging this is vital for understanding its behavior. Many analysts critique the caretaker government through the prism of modern governance, which often leads to certain conclusions. However, the emphasis on ideology within this government renders it fundamentally different from modern governance paradigms. Additionally, a shared identity serves as a crucial unifying force. The predominant majority of the current leaders are of Pashtun descent, and this shared background is sufficiently strong to uphold their unity. A significant factor contributing to the failure of the previous Afghan system was the emergence of rifts among leaders from various ethnic groups who were in positions of power.
In conclusion, two significant points should be emphasized. First, it is evident that a disagreement exists among the leaders of this government, with some leaders themselves acknowledging this fact; however, these disagreements do not extend beyond their respective governing methods. Second, provided that there is no discord among the Taliban leaders regarding the distribution of power, the possibility of a split and ensuing conflict within the Taliban is unlikely, and at this moment, there are no indications of any disagreement over power sharing.
The Taliban leader has the potential to resolve the prevailing conflicts by reassessing his position on critical issues, with the education and employment of girls and women being the most significant. However, for the Taliban government to maintain stability and endure in the long run, it is imperative to implement reforms that create a legal framework, including the development of a constitution and the enhancement of governmental operations.
