Review of Afghanistan developments
In the realm of international relations, the foundation of political and diplomatic interactions is primarily rooted in national interests rather than ethical considerations or humanitarian duties. This reality is particularly pronounced among great powers, which consistently endeavor to enhance their interests on the world stage.
During periods of crisis or warfare, great powers often exploit smaller and weaker nations to further their own interests. When the expenses associated with this support surpass a certain limit, these powers not only withdraw their assistance but also engage in covert agreements that adversely affect other nations. This behavior is evident in recent historical events, particularly in the contexts of Afghanistan, Syria, and Ukraine. Nations that depend on external aid during such crises ultimately find themselves vulnerable and at risk of destabilization due to the actions of these great powers.
This memorandum investigates the actions of great powers in times of crisis through the lens of three historical instances: Afghanistan, Syria, and Ukraine. It demonstrates how nations that depend on international support often fall victim to the strategic interests of these powers. The central aim of this examination is to deepen our understanding of the behavior exhibited by great powers during these crises.
Theoretical framework
Analyzing the issue of distrust towards great powers and the dependence on international support requires a theoretical framework grounded in various international relations perspectives. The realism theory, especially in its classical and neorealist interpretations, contends that states prioritize their own interests, with survival and power as their foremost concerns. According to this theory, in an anarchic international system, nations cannot place their trust in others and must continually depend on their own capabilities and resources to secure their survival.
A fundamental tenet of realism posits that nations must prioritize self-reliance and the maintenance of a balance of power to safeguard their security and interests. This principle suggests that nations reliant on great powers are vulnerable to the danger of disintegration, as these powers often act in their own self-interest and may eventually forsake their allies. This theory is particularly illustrated by the situations in Afghanistan and Syria, where great powers like the United States and Russia have engaged in negotiations with opposition factions or regional competitors to further their own interests.
Review of historical cases
1. Afghanistan: From Strategic Ally to System Collapse
Following the collapse of the Taliban in 2001, Afghanistan became a great recipient of military and financial support from the United States and NATO. The security agreement established between Kabul and Washington positioned Afghanistan as a key ally of the United States in the region. Nevertheless, rampant corruption and the ineffectiveness of the Afghan government hindered the establishment of a self-sufficient and stable state. As the expenses associated with maintaining the American presence in Afghanistan escalated, the United States engaged in negotiations with the Taliban, ultimately leading to the withdrawal of foreign forces and the subsequent takeover of the country by the Taliban. This situation exemplifies the conduct of great powers, illustrating that nations reliant on external support are often susceptible to becoming victims.
2. Syria: Russia’s pivot towards the opponents of Bashar al-Assad
From the outset of the Syrian civil war, Russia has been a key supporter of Bashar al-Assad. The government in Damascus successfully resisted opposition and Western-backed forces through military and diplomatic assistance. However, recent developments have revealed a clear divergence in Russia’s interests, moving away from its unconditional support for Assad. In a strategic realignment, Russia has halted its support for the Assad government and has begun negotiations with Assad’s opponents. This shift in Russia’s approach can also be interpreted in light of the changing policies of great powers concerning allies that depend on foreign aid.
3. Ukraine: A divergent experience, but a corresponding fate
Ukraine has benefitted from considerable support from both the United States and the European Union in its resistance to Russian attacks. This support has included billions of dollars in both financial and military aid, positioning Ukraine as a vital ally for the West in the ongoing conflict with Russia. However, due to several factors, including the high costs of support, widespread corruption, and notably shifting U.S. interests, Ukraine is now caught in the midst of behind-the-scenes negotiations among powerful nations and turned to a victim. This situation illustrates that even those countries that have been heavily backed by the West are at risk of being affected by changing diplomatic and geopolitical circumstances.
