Review of Afghanistan developments
The capital of Austria, Vienna, has been the site of various meetings among military and political rivals of the Taliban administration, collectively termed the Vienna Process. The fifth iteration of these meetings occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Vienna: A venue for individuals opposing the Taliban to express themselves
Various anti-Taliban media outlets and attendees of the Vienna meetings perceive this process as a cornerstone of international diplomacy for those opposing the Taliban. They suggest that Vienna might replicate the role of Doha in the future dynamics of Afghanistan. Nevertheless, in the context of political strategies, the mere location does not dictate the outcome; rather, it is the nature of the participants that influences the direction of the proceedings. This hopeful outlook arises from the understanding that for opponents of a government, obtaining a venue to articulate their views is seen as a notable success.
The status and credibility of the Vienna Process
The individuals involved in the Vienna series of meetings are attempting to depict these sessions as an internationally endorsed political undertaking. While the United States and some European nations originally intended for the Vienna process to serve as a competing initiative alongside the Moscow format, this did not occur for a variety of reasons. Consequently, one must consider: why did the Vienna process not succeed in being recognized as an international political process for Afghanistan?
A review of analogous patterns indicates that several elements influence the development of an effective trend. The prominence and relevance of the host, in conjunction with the trustworthiness of the participants, serve as vital and decisive components in establishing a trend’s credibility.
During the two decades of developments in Afghanistan that involved the international system, Austria had neither a role nor a position, and it currently lacks the necessary capacity and capability to participate.
Since the commencement of the Vienna series of meetings, there has been a conspicuous lack of engagement from representatives of both regional and international institutions, along with special representatives dedicated to Afghan issues. Additionally, the Austrian Foreign Ministry has refrained from sending a representative to any of these meetings and has not provided any messages related to the discussions.
In this situation, contrary to the positive and abstract viewpoint of those involved in the Vienna meeting, this process does not inherently possess the capacity to develop into a political format that would affect the dynamics in Afghanistan. A review of the current landscape of international competition reveals that the Vienna process is not projected to hold such potential in the future.
The Vienna Process Confronting National Credibility
Following the establishment of the Taliban as the exclusive ruling entity in Afghanistan, both regional and international governments have effectively begun to interact with the Taliban government. In the context of Afghanistan’s developments over the last fifty years, it is remarkable that diplomatic relations have transitioned to a state-centric model, thereby diminishing the influence of various groups and parties. As a result, it is anticipated that political and military entities opposing the Taliban will find it increasingly difficult to attract the interest of regional and global authorities. Furthermore, the past actions of former leaders have led to a notable decline in the Afghan people’s confidence in these opposition groups.
On a different note, the Taliban government has established itself as the predominant power in Afghanistan, which complicates the ability of its adversaries to play a significant role without the strong endorsement of the Afghan people. Many opposition leaders, owing to their particular backgrounds, find it difficult to gain the necessary trust and legitimacy to secure support from both the Afghan populace and influential global actors. A potential explanation for the absence of veteran Afghan jihadi leaders from the Vienna Process may be the perceived lack of credibility of its organizers in the eyes of the Afghan public and the global community.
The significant influence of the ethnic discourse on the Vienna process
The ethnic aspect has been a crucial element in the dynamics of Afghan politics for several decades. An analysis of the Vienna Process’s member composition in recent years reveals a failure to attract Pashtun leaders who stand against the Taliban. Despite the Vienna Process’s stated goal of fostering unity and consensus among its adversaries, the fifth meeting’s participant list was predominantly Tajik, mirroring previous gatherings. This trend continued, as influential Pashtun and Uzbek leaders, along with some Tajiks, did not engage with the process. Additionally, the increased vocal criticism from certain Afghan leaders on social media during this meeting underscores the inherent weaknesses of the Vienna Process.
The Vienna Process and Strategic Impasse
Unlike the Vienna Process, which advocates for a military resolution and involves the prominent roles of the leaders of armed opposition groups, regional and international entities, along with the United Nations, perceive engagement with the Taliban government as a strategy for achieving stability in Afghanistan. As a result, a significant number of Afghanistan’s seasoned ethnic and political leaders have distanced themselves from this process and are now prioritizing a civilian-oriented solution.
It appears that the youthful leaders associated with the Vienna Process, along with their supporters in foreign nations who are eager for recognition, do not possess a realistic perception of the current landscape. Therefore, they are pursuing a strategy that lacks the backing of both the international system and the Afghan people.
The Final word
The achievements and experiences of successful opposition parties worldwide illustrate that leaders must exhibit particular personality characteristics and competencies. These traits are essential for their words to resonate hope with the public and for their actions to motivate strong and resolute backing from the populace.
The discourse of the anti-Taliban leaders is centered on warfare, a notion that the Afghan people have become fatigued by. Additionally, the lifestyle of these leaders is significantly disconnected from that of the Afghan populace. This inconsistency has posed challenges for the anti-Taliban leaders in rallying public sentiment, especially concerning the Vienna process.
An essential factor in the track record of effective oppositions is their internal dynamics and organizational capacity. The members of the Vienna Process and other factions opposing the Taliban have, for more than three years, failed to achieve even minimal unity and cohesion, despite their grand aspirations to overthrow the Taliban government. As a result, it is highly likely that this endeavor will continue indefinitely, limited to annual meetings that generate only propagandistic rhetoric.
