Review of Afghanistan developments
The Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse has been confirmed by both countries. The government of Pakistan and the Taliban government each attributed the unsuccessful outcome to the other party. Without endorsing the accusations or claims from either side, what will be the factors and consequences of this negotiation failure? This note will examine this issue.
Factors behind the Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse
No comprehensive details have been provided to the media concerning the nature of the Istanbul discussions, the makeup of the delegations, and the agenda of these discussions. Nevertheless, the primary objective of these talks was evident: to establish a ceasefire and to refrain from any actions that could compromise each other’s security. From this perspective, the Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse can be ascribed to multiple factors.
Initially, the tension existing between Pakistan and Afghanistan is influenced by a multitude of complex, intertwined, and historical factors, making it far from a straightforward, case-by-case issue. From a theoretical standpoint, elucidating and precisely pinpointing the axis and location of the conflicts between these two nations is a challenging endeavor. A genuine understanding of the issues and the underlying causes of the conflict necessitates extensive and legal negotiations, which is why discussions between Afghanistan and Pakistan at various times frequently conclude without resolution.
Secondly, notwithstanding the assertions made by both nations, the negotiating teams lack complete authority to make decisions during the negotiations. Zabihullah Mujahid, The spokesperson for the Taliban government has claimed in a statement that the Pakistani team lacked full authority at the negotiation table, and the Pakistani side has made a similar assertion.
Thirdly, notable diplomats from both nations were absent from the negotiating teams, which were instead made up of military and intelligence officials; consequently, the negotiation process lacked the chance to advance amidst the complex discussions. A key factor contributing to the Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse was the predominance of security discussions led by the heads of the security services from both countries.
Fourthly, Pakistan’s demands from the Taliban government are exceedingly burdensome and create obligations that the Taliban government is largely unable to meet. Pakistan’s explicit request during negotiations is for the Taliban government to provide a written assurance regarding the security of Pakistani territory. However, the Taliban government does not exert complete control over the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), viewing these issues as internal matters of Pakistan. The sole assurance offered by the Taliban government is that it will refrain from utilizing Afghan territory against neighboring countries, which somewhat aligns with the operational capabilities and performance of the Taliban government.
Fifth, the inconsistent approach and vision of Pakistan is the primary reason for the Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse and the agreement between Pakistan and the Taliban administration. Pakistan seeks an official fatwa from the Taliban government that explicitly denounces the legitimacy of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and labels it as a “terrorist” organization. Theoretically, it is untenable for the Taliban’s jihad in Afghanistan to be deemed legitimate while the Pakistani Taliban’s jihad is regarded as illegitimate. In practical terms, the Taliban government is unable to fulfill Pakistan’s request.
In the meantime, Pakistan’s request for assurances regarding the security of its territory, along with the fatwa questioning the legitimacy of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), presents a significant challenge for the Taliban administration. Unless these two substantial demands from Pakistan are reasonably addressed, the negotiations are unlikely to proceed smoothly, and a result akin to the Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse should be anticipated.
Consequences of the Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse
The unsuccessful outcome of the Istanbul discussions will result in repercussions across multiple security, economic, and political domains for both countries and the surrounding region.
Security arena
Undoubtedly, the Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse and their inability to recommence will result in intermittent yet regulated assaults along the borders of the two nations. It is important to highlight that neither country possesses the strength, resources, or preparedness to engage in a comprehensive war against the other; instead, they seek to address their disputes and safeguard their interests through a combination of military pressure and diplomatic efforts. Consequently, security-related pressures, although managed, will persist from both nations in an attempt to persuade the opposing side to acquiesce to their demands. It is anticipated that this scenario will incite actions and movements from the adversaries of both countries, who will aim to capitalize on this situation to assert their influence. As a result, the intensity of violence within the territories of the two nations is expected to escalate.
In the case of a breakdown and extended halt in negotiations, if the situation becomes more complex, it is likely that both parties will prioritize bolstering each other’s rival factions, allowing their respective proxy groups to serve as a strategic advantage in their activism.
Political arena
The Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse will intensify the psychological conflict between the two nations. Pakistan, in particular, will seek to emphasize the deficiencies of the Taliban administration regarding governance and the rights of the Afghan populace, thereby complicating the process of recognizing the Taliban government. Recently, a spokesperson for the Pakistani army indicated that the key to alleviating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan lies in the formation of a fully elected government. This assertion carries political implications and serves as a subtle psychological warfare tactic against the Taliban government.
In the case of an extended halt in negotiations, the Pakistani government might pursue political asylum for adversaries of the Taliban regime within Pakistan to apply pressure on the Taliban government. Furthermore, it is quite possible that there will be a severe crackdown on Afghan refugees residing in Pakistan, along with complications regarding visa arrangements between the two countries.
Economic arena
The government of Pakistan will, as it has done previously, utilize the transit route as a means to exert pressure on the Taliban government. Furthermore, it will impose challenges and hindrances on the advancement of regional development initiatives across Afghanistan. The decisions made by Pakistan will encompass the Trans-Afghan Railway, TAPI, TOTAP projects, and the extension of CPEC into Afghanistan. While Pakistan will experience repercussions from these actions, it is anticipated that the Taliban government will endure even greater hardships than Pakistan.
Future prospects
The internal circumstances in Afghanistan and Pakistan render the suspension or failure to resume negotiations improbable. As noted by Asif Durrani, the former Pakistani representative for Afghanistan, in one of his interviews, if the negotiations progress to their thirtieth round, they will persist. Both parties exhibit a certain eagerness to restart discussions, as the expenses associated with peace and mutual understanding are significantly lower than those of war for both nations, which are currently grappling with an economic crisis and cannot sustain ongoing conflict or a full-scale war. In addition, regional countries are also seriously interested in resuming negotiations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It is probable that the characteristics and framework of negotiations will evolve over time. The inclusion of additional participants in the mediators’ circle, as well as the potential for a change in location in the future, is not an implausible scenario.
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The behavioral analysis of Pakistan in the Istanbul Talks
Conclusion
The Istanbul Peace Talks Collapse highlights the necessity of addressing the ongoing tension and conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan with utmost seriousness. Immediate and essential measures are required to break the deadlock in the relations between these two nations. There are indications that the discord between Pakistan and Afghanistan may be part of a broader agenda orchestrated by a third party aimed at destabilizing the region. Consequently, it is crucial for the countries in the region to assume responsibility and actively participate in finding a resolution to this issue. Considering the regional implications of the strife between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is imperative for the regional nations to engage in a collaborative effort through a regional framework to address this challenge.
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