Review of Afghanistan developments
The President of the United States declared in a speech to Congress that the individual responsible for the suicide attack at Kabul airport in 2021 has been apprehended. This tragic incident resulted in the deaths of 170 Afghan civilians and 13 American service members. The operative affiliated with ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-k), identified as Mohammad Sharifullah, was arrested in Pakistan and is currently being extradited to the United States. Trump expressed gratitude to Pakistan for its assistance in capturing this suspect.
During the evacuation of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, as Afghans hurried to the airport in a desperate attempt to escape, an ISIS-K suicide bomber detonated himself amidst the crowd near the entrance of Kabul airport. This tragic attack resulted in the deaths of 13 American soldiers, marking one of the most significant losses of American military personnel in Afghanistan and leaving a profound impact on the nation during the final days of its involvement in the region. Consequently, in the early days of his administration, Donald Trump initiated an investigation into the incident, which became known as “Abbey Gate,” named after one of the airport’s entry points.
US intelligence agencies had conducted an investigation into the attack over the past three years, during which they gathered information that included the identification of the individuals responsible. Among them was a man named Sharifullah, who was referred to as the mastermind behind the ” Abbey Gate ” attack because of his involvement in its planning.
Following the appointment of John Ratcliffe as the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Trump instructed him to focus on apprehending those responsible for the attack. Reports indicate that on the second day of his directorship, Ratcliffe communicated with General Asim Malik, the head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), during a phone call, seeking the assistance of Pakistani intelligence in capturing the individuals behind the attack.
The recent news concerning the arrest of Sharifullah, facilitated by Pakistani intelligence, has generated a multitude of questions and uncertainties, particularly following Trump’s commendation of the Pakistani government. Some questions such as how the individual identified as the mastermind behind the ” Abbey Gate ” attack was arrested within approximately 40 days of Trump’s inauguration. Additionally, one must consider why Pakistan did not pursue this arrest in the preceding three years, only taking action now with the onset of the Trump administration.
The presence of ISIS-K in Pakistan
Over the past few months, the Taliban government has announced that the leadership of ISIS-K has exited Afghanistan, with the group’s core reportedly moving to Pakistan, especially in the Baluchistan region. Although verifying this information is complex, the strained relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan lead to skepticism regarding the Taliban’s intentions, implying a possible effort to attribute blame to Pakistan. However, there are signs that could corroborate the Taliban’s statement.
The detention of three pivotal ISIS-K operatives, linked to the Kerman and Moscow attacks originating from Pakistani territory, represents as one of these signs. According to a recent report by the UN Security Council Monitoring Team, which oversees the assessment of terrorism in critical areas, Pakistani security agencies have arrested three key figures: Adil Panjshiri, Kaka Yunus from Uzbekistan, and Abu Mundhar from Tajikistan. The absence of denial from the Pakistani government regarding this information acts as a tacit acknowledgment. Additionally, the arrest of Sharifullah, the mastermind behind the “Abbey Gate” suicide attack, further evidences the presence of ISIS-K elements within Pakistan.
Considering Pakistan’s hesitance to allow ISIS-K to operate within its borders on an international scale, one may question the motivation behind the recent arrests being publicized. The most plausible explanation is that Pakistan aims to secure a significant accomplishment in return for acknowledging this allegation. This significant achievement is what Pakistan has been striving for in recent months: to gain recognition as a counterterrorism ally by the United States.
Pakistan’s achievements from cooperation with the United States
In the event that Donald Trump’s team is persuaded that Pakistan should be appointed as America’s regional collaborator in the war against terrorism, the nation could realize considerable successes. One significant step could be the incorporation of the battle against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan into a joint counter-terrorism initiative. The Pakistani military and intelligence services have been significantly challenged by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, finding it difficult to manage this critical security threat effectively.
The second significant achievement of Pakistan is its shift from a marginal to a central role in the Afghan context. In the aftermath of the developments of 2021, it was anticipated that Pakistan would take on a vital role in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the Taliban government, which pursued an independent foreign policy, rejected this expectation. The rise of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has led to increased tensions between Kabul and Islamabad, further marginalizing Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan. Should the United States recognize Pakistan’s collaboration in combating regional terrorism, the country may regain its significant position, reminiscent of its pivotal involvement during the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
The third outcome of Pakistan’s collaboration with the United States will be the potential marginalization of its longstanding adversary, India. India is actively seeking to be recognized by the US as a key regional ally in South Asia, particularly concerning the situation in Afghanistan. Should India succeed in this endeavor, Pakistan’s position may be further diminished. Consequently, Pakistan is striving to assume the role of a regional partner for the US, aiming to undermine India’s aspirations by demonstrating its goodwill to the Trump administration, particularly in discussions surrounding ISIS-K, and by contributing to Trump’s success in apprehending members of this group.
The fourth objective that Pakistan is pursuing involves securing the United States’ agreement to reinstate financial aid, which was halted following the inauguration of President Trump. The US State Department is currently assessing whether to permanently discontinue this aid or to reinstate it. In addition, with the US’s endorsement, international financial institutions are likely to agree to extend loans to Pakistan.
Pakistan’s opportunism
The apprehension of significant figures within ISIS-K by Pakistan, particularly the swift capture of Sharifullah at the behest of the CIA director, underscores the opportunistic tendencies of the Pakistani authorities. Given the established prestige and capabilities of Pakistan’s security forces, one must question why Sharifullah was not detained earlier during the Biden administration. It appears plausible that Pakistan, by permitting ISIS-K to operate unimpeded, strategically facilitated the entry of key members into the country, thereby positioning itself to extract substantial benefits from the United States through timely arrests. Rawalpindi officials likely believe that Trump, a businessman with a penchant for publicity, will undoubtedly reward Pakistan for this action.
This initiative from Pakistan is not unprecedented. In 2001, as the United States initiated its military campaign against the Taliban regime, it was in urgent pursuit of individuals linked to al-Qaeda. At that time, the intelligence services of Pakistan detained a number of Afghan and Taliban leaders residing within its borders and handed them over to the United States as suspected al-Qaeda operatives. Among those detained was Abdul Salam Zaeef, the Taliban’s ambassador to Pakistan, who was arrested on similar charges and later spent several years incarcerated at Guantanamo Bay.
In summary, Pakistan is earnestly attempting to restore the trust it has lost with the United States. The arrest of the person deemed responsible for orchestrating the ISIS-K attack at Kabul airport is a strategic move aimed at rebuilding confidence. However, it is questionable whether American intervention will be beneficial for Pakistan’s situation. The Pakistanis are well aware that U.S. actions in Afghanistan have led to an increase in regional terrorism, yet they are opting for this perilous path as a potential escape from the myriad security, economic, and political issues plaguing their nation.
