Review of Afghanistan developments
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, demonstrated that fostering close relations with the wealthy Arab countries of the Middle East is a strategic priority for his administration by selecting the Gulf Arab countries as the first destination for his foreign trip. Trump’s visit to Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, along with the nature of the receptions, the discussions held, the contracts signed, and his symbolic statements regarding international issues from the platforms of these Arab nations, indicated that he places significant importance on collaboration with these countries.
While the primary advantage of this trip is for the United States, it also highlights the unique role of the Arab nations of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in American foreign policy. In the long term, it suggests the impact of these three countries on Trump’s positions, strategies, and policies in the Middle East and beyond.
Taking this premise into account, and recognizing that the Arab countries of Qatar and the UAE have established robust connections with the Taliban administration, one might wonder if these Arab countries, for several reasons, including the competition for influence in Afghanistan, could seek to influence the relationship between the United States and the Taliban government?
Although Trump has removed Afghanistan from the agenda of his administration, his frequent remarks regarding the potential return to Bagram Air Base highlight the geostrategic significance of Afghanistan to both Trump and his advisors. The importance of Bagram Air Base to Trump is underscored by its proximity, being merely an hour away from the location of China’s nuclear arsenal.
Based on the ideology of the Taliban and the slogan that the leaders of this group have proclaimed over 20 years of war against occupation, the likelihood of the Taliban agreeing to the return of the United States to Bagram is entirely improbable. Trump’s remarks should be viewed as indicative of either a lack of adequate knowledge, emotional insight, or a strategy of psychological manipulation. The veracity of this matter ought to be conveyed by American specialists who possess a comprehensive understanding of the Afghan situation. Experts like Lisa Kurtz, a former member of the US National Security Council, have deemed the speculation surrounding the re-deployment of American forces to Afghanistan as futile. This is due to the fact that the Taliban will categorically refuse to permit the return of American troops to Bagram.
Mediation contexts of Arab countries
Irrespective of Trump’s remarks concerning Bagram, which bear no tangible consequences, it is important to acknowledge that there exist opportunities for mediation between Afghanistan and the United States. Furthermore, Qatar, the Emirates, and even Saudi Arabia possess the ability to sway Trump’s perspective regarding Afghanistan. The justifications and reasons that can be presented are as follows.
Initially, the previously mentioned Arab nations hold a favorable perspective regarding the Taliban government and desire for the Taliban to maintain control over Afghanistan. On the other hand, While the United States’ strategy concerning Afghanistan remains undecided, indications imply that the Trump administration does not plan to implement a regime change policy and, with a reasonable degree of certainty, prefers the Taliban government to persist. In this context, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia can act as mediators, directing Trump’s attention more towards the Afghan situation and, by garnering Trump’s favorable opinion, facilitate the acceptance of the Taliban as the enduring rulers of Afghanistan.
Secondly, the removal of US sanctions imposed on Afghanistan and the Taliban administration represents another matter for mediation that is closely tied to the stability and endurance of the Taliban regime. In this context, all three nations can persuade Trump to lift sanctions against the Taliban government by emulating the situation in Syria. Despite the significant and fundamental differences between the Islamist strategies of Ahmad al-Sharaa and the Taliban, as well as their adherence to distinct models, it is feasible to disregard certain elements of the Taliban government’s actions through the mediation of these three Arab states, given Trump’s distinctive transactional approach.
Thirdly, the ongoing provision of US assistance to Afghanistan may represent another topic for mediation on the agenda of the Arab countries of Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. By halting and potentially permanently terminating aid to Afghanistan, Trump has placed both Afghanistan and the Taliban government in a challenging situation. These three countries could serve as highly effective mediators in the effort to restore aid to Afghanistan. It is conceivable that these Arab nations will put forward a proposal for aid to Afghanistan that would appeal to Trump and motivate him to reinstate assistance to the country.
- Fourth, the rise of the Taliban government’s orientalist policy and conduct is a significant concern. In the last three and a half years, the Taliban administration has directed all its efforts towards an orientalism focused on China, Russia, and Iran, which, according to various analyses, stems from America’s neglect of Afghanistan. Persisting with this strategy will prove harmful not only to America but also to the Arab countries. The three countries—Qatar, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia—are likely to leverage their resources to gain Trump’s assistance in altering the Taliban government’s stance, in order to protect their own interests as well as those of the United States.
Challenges Ahead for Arab Mediation
While it may seem theoretically straightforward to suggest and address these matters, various challenges arise in the process. Firstly, the previously mentioned Arab counties maintain differing policies regarding their interactions with the Taliban; secondly, each of the three countries adopts a unique stance towards the Taliban. For instance, Saudi Arabia no longer considers the Afghan situation as critical as it once did, whereas Qatar is actively pursuing the Afghan issue; thirdly, Trump might seek to engage directly with the Taliban government without any intermediaries and, by offering concessions, aim to convince the Taliban government to safeguard its interests.
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Conclusion
Trump’s trip to the Arab nations of Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia is significant in enhancing the influence of these three Arab countries on the global stage. They will acquire the ability to affect specific developments through fresh economic, political, and security collaborations that they will initiate with the United States. One of the sectors where these Arab nations can assert new influence is Afghanistan.
For a variety of reasons, these three nations may choose to utilize this capacity to mediate between the United States and the Taliban government, either collectively or individually, as such mediation offers political and economic advantages to both parties involved. There exists a potential for competition to arise between Qatar and the UAE in the realm of mediation. Over the past two years, Abu Dhabi has been making significant efforts to enhance its influence within the Taliban government.
Nevertheless, it is improbable that the Taliban administration will agree to unconditional mediation from Arab countries while it maintains its existing structure and ideology. A primary condition set by the Taliban government for engaging with other countries is, among other factors, the prevention of foreign military presence in Afghanistan under any designation or title, along with a commitment to non-interference in the nation’s internal matters.
